Recently, I was reminiscing with my partner about our last family movie outing. In our quaint Oregon town, there’s a charming single-screen cinema that we used to visit once or twice a month with our three kids. However, since March, we haven’t set foot in a movie theater.
Dining out as a family has also become a distant memory. We skipped trips to the community pool this summer and even went months without haircuts. I ended up canceling my gym membership, and my partner hasn’t enjoyed a spa day in what feels like an eternity. We had even saved up for a big family vacation to Disney World in October, only to cancel it and hold on to our funds. If you’re reading this, chances are you’ve been navigating a similar COVID-19 lifestyle: staying home and avoiding social activities.
While these experiences may seem minor compared to the struggles faced by many Americans—millions have lost their jobs, and over a quarter of a million lives have been lost—there’s another side to this story. A significant portion of the population has been working from home, trying to flatten the curve, and saving money that would typically go to bars and concerts. With reduced commuting costs, many have been able to save on those daily snacks and coffee stops. This surge in savings is substantial; it’s estimated to be around $2 trillion, roughly 10% of the U.S. economy. Ian Harper, chief economist at Future Insights, has even dubbed it the “Biden Boom,” noting that the timing of President-elect Biden’s inauguration is fortuitous. “The COVID landscape will likely be grim during his inauguration,” Harper remarked. “But it won’t stay that way for long.”
The Key Question: How Soon Will This Boom Materialize?
Unlocking this potential spending will largely depend on the successful rollout of a vaccine. We’re closer than ever, but with the U.S. recently surpassing 250,000 COVID-19 deaths, the wait can feel agonizing. Both Pfizer and Moderna have promising vaccine candidates, but they face hurdles regarding FDA approval, manufacturing, and distribution. Additionally, many Americans might hesitate to get vaccinated. Thus, we can’t expect an immediate switch to pre-pandemic spending habits.
What individuals choose to spend their accumulated savings on remains uncertain. Joel Banks, chief economist at Market Insights, pointed out, “I waited a long time between haircuts, but that doesn’t mean I’ll get extra cuts to catch up.” He predicts that it may take two more years before spending on travel, entertainment, and services returns to pre-pandemic levels. Even once a vaccine is widely distributed, it may take time for people to feel comfortable venturing out and spending money again.
Personally, I’ve navigated two rounds of layoffs at my primary job, making me cautious about my spending habits. After nearly a year of living with this virus, I’ve found a glimmer of hope that I haven’t felt in a long time. After months of relentless bad news, a little optimism is refreshing.
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In summary, while the hope for an economic rebound through the “Biden Boom” exists, the timeline depends on various factors, including vaccine distribution and public willingness to engage in spending again. After a tumultuous year, there’s a sense of optimism, but individuals may take time to adjust their spending habits back to pre-pandemic norms.
Keyphrase: Biden Boom and consumer spending
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