Experts Suggest Herd Immunity is Unlikely to Be Achieved Anymore

Vaccine hesitancy and the emergence of new variants have led experts to conclude that the goal of achieving “herd immunity” may be out of reach. At the onset of the pandemic, the term “herd immunity” was frequently discussed. Some advocated for reaching it “naturally” through widespread infection, while others believed vaccination would be the key. However, recent observations indicate that herd immunity might be elusive for the U.S.

Currently, over half of U.S. adults have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, which is positive news. Nevertheless, as reported by The New York Times on May 3, 2021, “daily vaccination rates are declining, and scientists and public health experts widely agree that the threshold for herd immunity is likely unattainable — at least in the near future, and possibly never.”

“The virus is unlikely to disappear,” stated Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University. “Our aim should be to ensure it becomes a mild infection.” Dr. Anthony Fauci previously mentioned specific vaccination percentages necessary to reach herd immunity, but that terminology has diminished recently. “People were misunderstanding and thinking you couldn’t reduce infections until you hit this mythical herd immunity number,” Fauci explained. “That’s why we’ve stopped using ‘herd immunity’ in the traditional sense. Just vaccinate enough people, and infections will decrease.”

Experts attribute the shift away from herd immunity to variants and vaccine hesitancy. Due to the rapid mutation of the virus, estimates suggest that about 80% of the population must be vaccinated to approach herd immunity. With around 30% of Americans expressing reluctance to get vaccinated, achieving that number seems improbable. Additionally, even if herd immunity is reached in the U.S. overall, areas with high vaccine hesitancy, such as small rural towns, will remain vulnerable. As Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard, noted, “the virus doesn’t care; it will spread through the smaller communities.”

Moreover, achieving herd immunity in the U.S. becomes irrelevant if other countries do not reach similar levels of immunity.

So if herd immunity is no longer the target, what is? “Our primary goal should be to minimize the occurrence of sporadic outbreaks,” stated Carl Bergstrom, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Washington. The hope is that COVID-19 will ultimately behave like the seasonal flu. However, the reality is that some individuals may continue to suffer from “long COVID,” which may not place an overwhelming burden on the healthcare system nationally, but remains a challenge for those affected.

Lawrence Gostin, Director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law, emphasized that while we can “drastically reduce” COVID-19 transmission through vaccinations, there will always be unvaccinated pockets in the U.S., similar to what leads to measles outbreaks.

Despite the challenging outlook, there is some optimism. Ashish K. Jha, Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, mentioned on Twitter, “As we approach summer and fall… we may not achieve herd immunity, but infection rates should be low, vaccinated individuals will largely be safe, and with improved treatment options, infections may become less serious, allowing life to return to a familiar normal.”

For more insights and discussions on related topics, be sure to check out this other blog post. If you’re interested in learning about home insemination options, Make a Mom offers authoritative resources. Additionally, the CDC provides valuable information on pregnancy and home insemination.

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In summary, achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 in the U.S. seems increasingly unlikely due to vaccine hesitancy and the emergence of variants. The focus is now shifting towards managing outbreaks and minimizing severe cases, with hopes that COVID-19 will become more manageable, similar to seasonal flu.

Keyphrase: Herd immunity unlikely to be achieved

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